Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage by Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Princeton University Press, $24.95, 208 pages.

The News & Observer

Sunday, April 7, 2002


Dry wells spell a chilling future


By PHILLIP MANNING

We think of science as a world of facts, but in truth, much of its work requires a crystal ball. Many of the problems scientists address are so complex that the best answers they can come up with are highly approximate predictions. Unfortunately, these knotty problems often concern the most pressing issues humanity faces.

Global warming is one example. Almost all scientists believe that the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will warm the planet. But they disagree on how hot it will get and how fast it will happen. Furthermore, extreme predictions at both ends of the spectrum can be used to support almost any argument. Another equally important example concerns world oil production. Oil is as essential to Americans as air, food and water. A cheap, steady and plentiful supply is central to our way of life. But oil is a finite resource.

When will the river of black gold begin to run dry? That is the question Kenneth Deffeyes asks in "Hubbert's Peak." His answer is chilling: very soon. Deffeyes predicts that oil production will peak during the next few years, starting a bidding war for the remaining oil that will change dramatically the way we live.

This brings us to a central question: Should we believe him? Are skyrocketing oil prices and the chaos they are likely to bring just around the corner? As is the case with global warming, the best we can do is decide who the experts are and accept a middle-of-the-road prediction. And Deffeyes is an expert, a true son of the oil patch. As a boy, he tagged along after his petroleum-engineer father from one oil field to another. He took part-time jobs in the oil business as soon as he was old enough to hold a pipe wrench, and he finished his education with a Ph.D. in geology from Princeton. He then went to work at Shell Oil, where he met the noted geologist M. King Hubbert.

Hubbert's seminal moment came at a 1956 meeting of the American Petroleum Institute. A researcher at the time for the Shell Oil Company, Hubbert predicted that the United States' oil production would peak in the early 1970s and begin to decline. Nobody believed him. Similar predictions had been made before, and all had proved false. Then, in 1971, U.S. oil production began to decline, a trend that continues to this day.

So impressed was Deffeyes with Hubbert's dismal prediction about the future of American oil that he left Shell and returned to Princeton in 1967 as a professor of geology. There he began refining Hubbert's method for predicting production rates, using data that were not available when Hubbert made his original forecast. He applies this modified Hubbert technique to world oil production. A key assumption in these predictions is an estimate of oil reserves. Here, Deffeyes has to rely on the guesses of other experts; nobody knows exactly how much oil is in the ground. Estimates range from 1.8 to 2.1 trillion barrels. Depending on which estimate you use, Deffeyes predicts that world oil production will begin to decline between 2003 and 2008. His personal belief is that 2004 is about right.

Deffeyes accompanied author John McPhee on many of his geological expeditions. Along the way, McPhee learned a lot of geology from Deffeyes; unfortunately, Deffeyes did not learn as much about writing from McPhee. "Hubbert's Peak" is written in a style that could generously be called folksy or ungenerously labeled as corny, full of non sequiturs, labored similes and anecdotes that do not move the narrative forward. For example, he explains that nine out of 10 wells drilled are dry holes. Then he follows that with the non sequitur, "If we are so smart, why aren't we rich?" This style might work in a classroom, but it falls flat in a book. Nevertheless, "Hubbert's Peak" is worthwhile reading, because Deffeyes knows what he's talking about. More than likely, crude oil production will peak in the coming decade. And even more likely, prices will rise.

Much of the book explains how heat "cracks" the complicated organic residues of dead plants to create oil. In general, the material must have, at some point, been trapped between 7,000 and 15,000 feet below the earth's surface. This is called the "oil window." Closer to the surface, temperatures are too low to make oil; deeper down, it is so hot that the material gets turned into natural gas. The "oil window" explains why some parts of the world have reservoirs of oil and others do not. The book also describes how companies find and recover this oil.

The last three chapters cover nonrenewable and renewable alternatives to conventional oil. He details new methods for recovering oil from depleted wells, tar sands and shale. Power generation from geothermal wells, solar cells and wind energy are explored. Deffeyes plays no favorites; he supports research in all of these areas, and he pleads for that research to begin immediately in order to cushion the impact of lower oil production.

One bright spot among all the reasons you should trade in your gas guzzler before fuel prices go through the ceiling is natural gas. Unlike oil, Deffeyes expects natural gas production to continue to expand for some time. Furthermore, it is cheaper than oil and adds less carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Could increased production of natural gas compensate for the decline in oil production and stabilize prices? Deffeyes doesn't say, but he does make clear his sentiments about the future of the conventional oil business: He advises his 2-year-old granddaughter to stay away from the oil patch and to "get into renewable energy." And that strikes me as sound advice, not only for her but for the rest of us, too.
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